“Inflation rate drops”, or “Inflation rate remains elevated,” choose your headline to describe a change in America’s inflation rate from 8.5 percent in March to 8.3 percent in April. This change in the number following the decimal point after an 8 is of no policy consequence. It can’t change the important fact that seven-in-ten Americans […]
Party On What a swell party this is… never seen such gaiety,” warble the dynamic duo of Crosby and Sinatra in Cole Porter’s “High Society”. Wake up on Monday morning, overpay for a new house, have a capital gain by the weekend. Buy a new car at a premium price, and next week sell it […]
With wages rising, 11 million job openings in search of workers, quit rates and job security high and the unemployment rate low, it is clear that bargaining power has shifted from bosses to workers. But the implications of that shift for the labor market as an institution are less clear. In the wonderful 1954 musical, […]
Eleven million unfilled jobs. Still-strong consumer balance sheets. Inventory of unsold houses so low that bidding wars break out as FOMO (fear of missing out) spreads. Rising wages, plentiful jobs, record-low lay-offs, drive consumer sentiment up by the largest amount since 2006 to a three-month high. The economy to grow at an annual above-trend rate […]
If it weren’t so serious a time, “I told you so” would be the order of the day. American Presidents from Jack Kennedy through Ronald Regan and Donald Trump have warned Germany and Europe about excessive reliance on Russian natural gas. Germany continues to rely on Russia for about 40 per cent of its gas […]
It should come as no surprise that the abrupt end of the post-World War II geopolitical settlement calls for a reappraisal of the future of the American economy. Nor should it be a surprise that such a reappraisal is made doubly difficult when accompanied by sanctions that are disrupting markets from oil to wheat to […]
The “strong economy”, as Jay Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve board, describes it, can “flourish in the face of a less accommodative monetary policy.” True, but only if that policy, already too late, is not also too little to rein in inflation. And if it is accompanied by an energy policy that does not […]
The oil market may be a consumer’s nightmare, but it is a green’s dream come true – prices so high that consumers are forced to reduce their use of gasoline and heating oil, while the government seeks to prevent those high prices from providing oil companies with an incentive to increase supply and bring prices […]
When asked whether he was concerned that Billy Conn, a faster, shiftier opponent might relieve him of his heavyweight crown, the great Joe Louis is said to have responded, “He can run, but he can’t hide.” Louis knocked Conn out in the 12th round of their 15 round title fight. Inflation Will Hit You, One […]
“Transitory” is out, “elevated” is in. QE (Quantitative Easing) is out, QT (Quantitative Tightening) is in. Negative interest rates are out. We now know what medicine the Fed has in mind for the US economy. But we can’t be certain of the efficacy of the planned doses. Cooling a red-hot economy is no walk in […]