The New Economics: Slay Inflation By Cutting Interest Rates — Often

The Full Monty, Fed version, was served up last week, as the members of its policy-making Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) gathered to bare their views on the state of the US economy and the direction of monetary policy. Voting were all seven governors of the Federal Reserve Board, the president of the Federal Reserve […]

Fed Prepares What May Be The Kindest Cut Of All, Unless It Isn’t

The American economy grew at better than a three  per cent annualized rate in the fourth quarter of last year. Early reports that retail sales had declined in January were revised to show an increase. Unemployment is at 3.9 per cent, below the pre-pandemic rate, while various measures of workers’ real earnings (inflation-adjusted) are recovering […]

Americans Decide Leadership Ain’t Cost Free

On January 20, 1961, President John F. Kennedy used his inaugural address to announce that America “shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any enemy to assure the survival and success of liberty.” Sixty-three years later Americans are not so sure about that. That includes the two men […]

Obama Famously Said Elections Have Consequences: Here Are Some

It now seems sufficiently likely that 2024 will see a 2020 rematch between the cognitively-challenged Joe Biden and the morally-challenged Donald Trump to warrant a few guesses as to what the winner has in store for America and the world. Free Trade R.I.P. No matter the outcome, free trade will remain a fond memory for […]

Irwin Stelzer with a thankful nod to Clement Clark Moore

“Twas the night before Christmas, And all through the Fed, Governors were praying that inflation is dead. Economists were nestled all snug in the beds, While visions of soft landings danced in their heads. In the Treasury millions of stockings were hung with care, With Janet Yellen wondering whether she dare Run her money presses […]

A Brave New Economy Emerges – Perhaps

The years of our discontent are over. We are in a new era, discussing the when and how many of interest rate cuts rather than increases. Three such reductions seem to be what Federal Reserve Board policymakers have in mind. Typically, the recital of this news by chairman of the board Jay Powell was presented […]

How Long Will the Fed Stay High

The American labor market is loosening enough to satisfy Federal Reserve Board inflation fighters, without frightening economists into abandoning their prediction of a soft landing, or preventing consumer sentiment from turning cheerier, as it has. The private sector added 199,000 jobs in November, but about 50,000 were striking workers leaving picket lines for the workplace, […]

A Soft Landing or Turbulence In 2024

Last week the Conference Board reported that consumer confidence increased in November after declining for three consecutive months. That was obvious from the data pouring in over a Thanksgiving holiday weekend that included Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Post-Thanksgiving Buying Binge Black Friday is the day consumers unzip wallets and purses and open the holiday […]