The Four Numbers That Tell Our Economic Future

2.7%, 3.9%, 3%, and 4.7%. Know what those numbers mean, and you can be your own economic forecaster. 2.7%% is the rate at which the International Monetary Fund is expecting the U.S. economy to grow this year. That is up from the 2.3% forecast the IMF came up with only a few months ago, a […]

After Trump

Never say Never. That’s what some of the Never Trumpers are saying, and even more are thinking. Both in private. They are afflicted with a nagging suspicion. Trump might, how shall they whisper it, Make America Great Again. The tax bill has given the economy a bit of a tailwind, most Americans have more money […]

Trump Is Betting Everything on the Economy

Because if a recession hits before 2020, the government will have no tools to fight it. We don’t hear much from Donald Trump about the stock market these days. Odd, that. There was a time when he took credit for its spectacular rise after his election. “The reason our stock market is so successful is […]

The Murdoch Method

“Great insights into the complex Murdoch man and equally great lessons for risk taking and management. —BARRY DILLER, Chairman of IAC/InterActiveCorp and Expedia, Inc. “A fascinating recounting of the myriad complex transactions and organizational approach Rupert utilized in building a great entrepreneurial media empire. Relentless energy! -JOHN MALONE, Chairman of Liberty Media “Stelzer, who worked […]

The Trump Presidency is bigger than the man

The Trump Presidency is bigger than the man THE MAGAZINE: From the March 2018 Issue Irwin Stelzer 3/3/18 Donald Trump The Person is flawed but the President has put the US on track COVER ILLUSTRATION BY MICHAEL DALEY PPP That’s what you need to keep in mind if you are to understand American politics: […]

Greenspan Warning: Stagflation Ahead The economy panics.

Greenspan Warning: Stagflation Ahead The economy panics. Jay Powell and Donald Trump combined last week to shake investors to their core. New Federal Reserve Board Chairman Powell tried to keep his first congressional appearance since taking the job a bland affair. He failed. Donald Trump expected a positive reaction to his announcement that he is […]

BBC: “US coffers not big enough for Trump plans”

US coffers not big enough for Trump plans President Trump is expected to unveil his answer to America’s infrastructure problems, in an upcoming US budget announcement. Road and rail networks are under huge pressure and in need of renewal and repair. But the US coffers likely aren’t big enough, says economist Irwin Stelzer from the […]

The Economics of 2018: The known-unknowns about where the economy is going.

“Mournful, dazed, sullen, traumatized, self-absorbed, defensive, remote, morbid, bleak, bummed-out, alienated, unprotected, besieged.” That’s how a leading pop music critic describes the music of choice of “millennial and younger listeners . . . making their way into an era of accelerating income inequality . . . with staggering debt . . . [and] the prospect […]

Are We Headed for a New, New-Normal?

The New Normal. Slow growth. Persistently low inflation threatening to morph into Japanese-style deflation. Stagnant wages. Rising inequality. The American Dream converted to a nightmare. All the result of the metastasizing of the regulatory and entitlement states, say the Republicans. No, it’s the result of corporate greed, racism and a refusal of the rich to […]

The Optimists vs. the Eeyores

Rarely have both exuberance and anxiety run simultaneously at the high pitch evident these days at gatherings of investors. The exuberants are the noisiest right now. Trump tax cuts have produced a surge in business after-tax profits-which even before the tax cuts were up double digits compared with last year. Millions of workers and their […]